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Vind-/Väderprognoser i jämförelse?
Publicerad av jezaja på 2 augusti, 2004 vid 07:16GFS mot MM5 som finns på Windguru, vad e skillnaden (Gärna andra metoder? också för den delen) ?
Googlade lite men hittade mest skit, nån som är väderbiten och orkar förklara i enkla termer?Såg 6.5m/s Varberg imorn vid 1700 GFS och 3.6m/s med MM5, nästan dubbelt upp ju!
svan svarade 20 år, 9 månader sedan 4 Medlemmar · 4 Svar -
4 Svar
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Detta står på deras hemsida…
GFS model
GFS stands for the Global Forecast System. It is run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which is a unit of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), NWS (National Weather Service), USA. The GFS is run four times per day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC) out to 384 hours. They calculate with resolution about 55-km out to 3.5 days (84 hours), then about 80-km from 3.5 to 7.5 days (180 hours), and then about 110-km resolution for the rest – up to day 16 (384 hours). Windguru only uses 180 hours of forecast, because beyond this it’s more ”crystal gazing” then forecast I think. The files with model data which are used to generate windguru forecasts have 1 degree resolution so we can say it’s about 100 km (depends on latitude etc..). You see that the resolution is not that great but it covers the whole Globe!
MM5 model
MM5 is a limited-area numeric weather prediction model. It has been developed at Pensylvania State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR), USA. You can look at the MM5 website. ”MM” in the name means ”Mesoscale and Microscale”. Windguru.cz offers forecasts based on data produced by two different MM5 model configurations. The main domain covers Europe and Mediterrain sea and has 27 km resolution. The second domain is a small one which covers area around Czech republic with 9 km resolution. The initial and boundary conditions are taken from GFS model. If everything goes smooth MM5 updates 4 times per day and give forecast for 78 hours to the future in 1 hour step. Currently you can see wind at 10 meters above surface and temperature in the windguru forecasts. Cloud cover, precipitation and also wind gusts should be available later. -
ja SMHI kan man ju glömma, 92 av 93 prognoser var fel i juli enligt Metro… Är det sommarpraktikanter som ställer till det?
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